Recasting and why it disproportionately hurts Sisters players

This might be controversial. Buckle and brace, hippies - I'm going in hot.

I think we can all agree that commercial recasting and sale on sites like eBay is "a thing". It exists, and exists at a relatively sophisticated and perhaps even industrialized level. There are factories or workshops in countries with lax IP (intellectual property) laws - frequently China - where molds are taken from GW originals and copies cast. These are sophisticated operations - not a guy in his basement mixing up silicone and resin on his workbench. These are organized companies producing products which - while clearly distinguishable from the original - have (and let's be honest) good fidelity to the original. They are made available at a lower price than the official model is.

We all know this happens. Some of us might have purchased a rescast (knowingly or unknowingly). I know for a fact it is very tempting - I was looking for a particular model for a conversion (I'm going to be vague here because I don't want people finding the recaster on eBay). I found what was clearly a recast - sold by someone selling more of what were clearly recasts. The original is FineCast - with all the feared problems that might have - and the recast version was not only less than half the price, but also looked to be a very nice cast. The seller had great feedback.

I didn't buy it. But I was tempted.

I was tempted because, well . . . what difference does it make, really? One model? And the original is expensive - would I have bought it at the full price anyway? And it was FineCast - do I really want to pay twice as much for something that might have problems? And, come on! GW stuff is expensive - if China can sell it for half the price, shouldn't they be allowed to? Capitalism, baby!

Yes, it's just one model - but no waterdrop thinks its responsible for the flood. GW - any owner - has a right to sell at a price they deem fair; we would object if we were forced to work for a price we did not determine. We cannot demand someone employ us, but we can refuse to take a job at a price we consider less than we are worth.

And the reason Chinese knock-offs are cheaper is because they are not paying for advertising, promotion, development, R&D etc. A recast ForgeWorld Titan represents just that - the recasting. It is a matter of making the mold and pouring the resin. They have to do literally nothing - but ForgeWorld had to design it, make the master, advertise it. We only know to search eBay for "Warhound Titan" because GW has made us aware of it - and that cost money.

A study of fixed vs variable costs is essential here. All products (from toothbrushes to bridges) have to bear the costs of R&D spread over the number of units they are going to sell. The cost of a product is made up of the individual unit cost for materials & manufacture, plus the total R&D (and advertising, legal, corporate etc.) budget divided by the number of units sold.

What does this have to do with recasting hurting Sisters players more than others?

Chinaforge makes the Adepta Sororitas cry

With slight variations, most GW models are similarly priced. A tactical Space Marine is $4, a Cadian is $2.90, a Skitarii is $3.90, an Eldar Guardian is $3.63. A Genestealer Neophyte is $4. All plastic models, all around the same price. If you compare similar models - vehicles of the same size and complexity - they are about the same price.

That makes sense - models of similar size and complexity should be the same price, right?

Not according to the laws of supply-and-demand and fixed-vs-variable costs.

Economagus Hayek is here to educate you

Let's take two hypothetical examples - two boxes of models. Each is a basic infantry squad for a different army. Each consists of 100 components that make 10 models. They are the same level of complexity - each required the same amount of R&D time to develop. Material & manufacture costs for each are the same. Let us give a nominal cost of 10000 SpaceBucks (SB) for R&D for each of them, and a nominal cost of 5 SB for materials & manufacture for each unit.

The only difference is in popularity; one is for a highly popular army - each GW store will sell 100 units a month. The other is less popular - each GW store will sell 10 units a month.

Let's crunch the numbers. Let's say GW wants to make its money back within a year. They will sell 1200 of the popular and 120 of the less popular. The materials and manufacture cost of the more popular one is 6000 SB. For the less popular, M&M is only 600 SB.

Once we add in R&D costs, the total cost for the units GW will sell in a year is 16000 SB for the more popular and 10600 for the less popular.

Now; how much do they need to sell each one for in order to break even? It's simple math - divide the total cost by the number of units sold. So, the more popular breaks even if sold at 13.33.. SB / unit. The less popular breaks even at 88.33.. SB / unit.

Now, those are hypothetical numbers - I don't know how much these things really cost, nor comparative popularity. But it is clear to see that a less-popular product should cost more. It should cost more because the fixed costs of R&D are spread over a smaller number of units.

But it doesn't. GW is going to sell fewer Genestealers than Space Marines - but they are priced about the same. GW prices models this way in order to encourage sales and avoid the appearance of unfairness (among customers who don't understand economics). They manage this by absorbing some of the costs for less-popular lines on more-popular ones, or accepting lower-profit margins for less-popular lines.

Counterfeits impact GW's bottom line - how much is open to debate, but they do impact it. If a company sees a lowering of income, they will cut costs - that is inevitable. But what GW is not going to do is cut R&D on Space Marines - they are their major line. They are going to play it safe.

And playing it safe means not producing boutique lines of miniatures. Playing it safe means concentrating on things you know will sell, things you are assured of a large-enough return on to absorb the cost of counterfeiting. For GW specifically, it means sticking with Space Marines not only because they are popular, but because the R&D burden for them is lower due to so much work already done being applicable to a new project (everyone looks similar in power armor...)

And that is why recasting impacts us disproportionately. I am not saying the reason we haven't see Sisters for years is because of recasting, but the same economic pressures - of the smaller profit-margins on boutique lines because of fewer units-sold to spread fixed costs over - are at play. And now we are likely to see plastic Sisters, we need to understand that buying recasts is not only illegal, unfair, unethical and just-not-cricket, but that it hurts us more than it hurts other players.

I didn't buy the recast. Instead, I wrote to infringements@gwplc.com with details and links. If you see recasts for sale, I urge you to do the same.